CI
Cencora, Inc. (COR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 FY2025 delivered solid topline and margin expansion: revenue $80.66B (+8.7% YoY) and adjusted EPS $4.00 (+19.8% YoY), with strength in U.S. Healthcare Solutions and contribution from the January 2025 RCA acquisition .
- Beat vs S&P Global consensus: adjusted EPS $4.00 vs $3.84*, revenue $80.66B vs $80.12B*, and EBITDA $1.24B vs $1.15B*; beat driven by specialty volumes, GLP‑1 category growth, and RCA contribution .
- FY2025 guidance raised/narrowed: adjusted EPS to $15.85–$16.00 (from $15.70–$15.95), consolidated operating income growth to 15–16% (from 13.5–15.5%), U.S. segment OI growth to 20–21% (from 17.5–19.5%); International OI guided to ~‑6% (worse), with expected sequential improvement into Q4 .
- Key stock catalysts: continued strength in U.S. specialty and narrowed/raised EPS guidance, plus indications of sequential improvement in global specialty logistics; dividend maintained at $0.55 (payable Sep 3, 2025) .
Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- U.S. Healthcare Solutions strength: revenue $72.88B (+8.5% YoY) and segment operating income $0.90B (+29.1% YoY), aided by specialty volumes and RCA integration .
- Margin expansion: adjusted gross margin 3.55% (+36 bps YoY) and adjusted operating margin 1.31% (+13 bps YoY), driven primarily by U.S. mix and RCA .
- Raised FY2025 EPS guidance: “Adjusted diluted EPS to be in the range of $15.85 to $16.00” (up from $15.70–$15.95), reflecting U.S. outperformance .
- Management tone confident: “Cencora delivered strong financial results… driven by our pharmaceutical-centric strategy and focus on our growth priorities” — CEO Robert Mauch ; CFO emphasized “adjusted diluted EPS growth of 20%” and strength in specialty .
What Went Wrong
- International Healthcare Solutions operating income declined 12.9% YoY to $156.2M (constant currency down 16.2%), pressured by global specialty logistics and consulting businesses .
- Net interest expense rose to $81.8M (+$50.5M YoY) due to debt raised for RCA and higher revolver usage; a headwind to earnings .
- Guidance lowered for International OI: now ~‑6% for FY2025 (as reported) vs prior decline of 1–4% (constant currency ~‑5% vs prior down 3% to flat), reflecting slower-than-expected rebound in trial activity and consulting demand .
- Revenue growth moderation vs prior: CFO cited decelerating GLP‑1 growth (+19% YoY in Q3) and loss of a high‑revenue low‑margin grocery customer impacting top‑line guidance .
Financial Results
Consolidated P&L vs Prior Quarters (GAAP and Adjusted)
Segment Breakdown
KPIs and Operating Items
Q3 2025 Actuals vs S&P Global Consensus
Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategy and execution: “Cencora delivered strong financial results in the third fiscal quarter, driven by our pharmaceutical-centric strategy and focus on our growth priorities.” — Robert P. Mauch, CEO .
- Specialty and RCA impact: CFO highlighted “consolidated gross profit margin… primarily driven by the gross profit contribution from our acquisition of Retina Consultants of America” .
- U.S. momentum and guidance: “We are raising and narrowing our fiscal 2025 EPS guidance… reflecting continued strong performance of our U.S. Healthcare Solutions segment” — James Cleary, CFO .
- International path forward: “Global specialty logistics… grew sequentially… expect… operating income return to growth exiting the fiscal year” — CFO .
Q&A Highlights
- U.S. revenue vs OI: Revenue growth moderating due to biosimilars (Part D impact), GLP‑1 deceleration (+19% YoY), and loss of a high‑revenue low‑margin grocery customer; OI outpaces top‑line on stronger specialty mix .
- International softness: Subdued clinical trial activity pressured logistics and consulting; sequential growth observed with expectation of Q4 OI return to growth .
- FY2026 planning levers: RCA full-year inclusion, oncology customer loss impact, utilization trends, capital deployment/shares; confidence in long‑term targets (5–8% organic OI; 8–12% EPS with capital deployment) .
- Tariffs: No material impact; focus on patient access and avoiding shortages; brands vs generics supply chains monitored .
- GLP‑1 profitability: Minimally profitable currently; margins could improve with normalized fee-for-service in future, but not assumed in FY2026 plan .
Estimates Context
- Q3 FY2025 vs consensus: EPS $4.00 vs $3.84* (beat), revenue $80.66B vs $80.12B* (beat), EBITDA $1.24B vs $1.15B* (beat). Beats driven by U.S. specialty distribution and RCA contribution, with sequential improvements emerging internationally .
- Street likely to adjust upward for FY2025 EPS given raised range (to $15.85–$16.00) and stronger U.S. OI growth; international expectations may be tempered near-term given lowered OI outlook .
Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- U.S. specialty continues to be the engine: broad‑based strength in physician practices and health systems, biosimilar dynamics supportive to margins; expect continued outperformance versus top‑line .
- RCA is accretive and strategically important: supports margin expansion and specialty leadership in retina; integration momentum and customer feedback positive .
- International headwinds are easing: sequential improvement in logistics with expectation of OI growth exiting FY25; watch Q4 trajectory closely .
- Balance sheet and cash: net interest expense elevated on deal financing; monitor leverage and cash generation versus unchanged full‑year adjusted FCF guide commentary from CFO .
- FY2025 setup improved: narrowed/raised EPS and OI guidance should support estimates and sentiment; dividend maintained .
- Near‑term trading: stock likely responsive to beats and guidance raise; monitor any macro/policy headlines (tariffs, outpatient rule) — management sees no material impact to date .
- Medium‑term thesis: durable U.S. specialty growth, potential normalization and improved pricing in GLP‑1 category over time, and operational leverage from digital/productivity initiatives underpin long‑term EPS growth .